DesertWeather.com

972
FXUS66 KSGX 140055
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
455 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Well-below-normal temperatures for the entirety of the forecast
period. Additional precipitation and stronger winds expected
through Saturday, with hazards for both the marine waters and the
beaches prevailing through the weekend. Additional wind and
rain/snow possible with another system Monday/Tuesday. A third
system late next week may bring similar impacts but with lower
confidence.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

This morning`s sounding showed a decent amount of CAPE over coastal
Southern California, evident with the line of thunderstorms that
made its way across the marine waters early this morning, fizzling
out once they moved ashore. Generally 0.25-0.50" fell this morning,
but some thunderstorms that reached coastal communities were able to
provide closer to 0.75" before sunrise. Radar currently has a few
piddly showers over parts of the coastal and valley zones, with
very little in terms of accumulation. In a lower-CAPE environment,
chances of thunderstorms for the remainder of the day are very
low, generally 5% or less, but on-and-off showers could continue
at times through this evening.

The low responsible for our morning convection has transitioned to
an open trough, currently positioned over Southern California
according to mid-level water vapor satellite. With a tighter
gradient, winds increase this afternoon and evening over the marine
waters, mountains, and deserts, with intermittent gusts to 30 mph
over the waters and 45 mph for the wind-prone spots in the
mountains. Winds will be strongest tonight as the shortwave on the
backside of the trough moves through, with winds slowly weakening
through Saturday morning. Additional rain/shower activity will
accompany this shortwave, although the very low thunderstorm
chances point to lighter accumulation through Saturday morning
compared to this morning. Expect up to an addition 0.25" through
Saturday morning for most spots west of the mountains (and up to
0.50" of additional rainfall for the mountains and foothills).
Marine and beaches will see impacts as well through Saturday...please
see these sections below.

Any rainfall should quickly come to an end Saturday afternoon, with
drier air filtering in behind the trough. Weak upper level ridging
will build in late Saturday and early Sunday, with less cloud
coverage. Sunday will be a nice break in between systems, as the
next trough is poised to move through Monday/Tuesday. Models
continue to struggle to resolve the next system, especially timing
and strength, with the GFS a bit faster compared to the ECMWF. The
timing of this system will dictate marine and beaches impacts with
another round of strong winds and high seas. For the inland side, a
front associated with the trough will bring gusty winds and
additional precipitation, as well as isolated thunderstorm chances.
While this next system will be cooler than the previous, trying to
nail out snow levels with such mismatch in the global models is
difficult, especially with the heavier precipitation likely to be
pushing through on Tuesday. For now, snow levels are generally at
or above 6000ft during the precipitation window on Tuesday, which
could allow for some of the higher elevations and mountain roads
to see low snow impacts. Depending on the track and strength, snow
levels could range anywhere from 5300-7000ft+. Regardless of how
this system shakes out, guidance has been trending drier with each
model run, and the latest guidance indicates less than 0.25" for
most locations Mon-Tue (0.50" for the mountains). Additionally,
temperatures will fall Mon-Tue to around 8-17 degrees below
normal.

Further on in the week, another system could bring additional wind
and rain to SoCal Thurs/Fri, but there is low confidence in any
discernible impacts as global models are displaced with the core
of the low by well over 100 miles. It is possible that the low
swings too far north for us to benefit from, but NBM persists with
around a 50% chance for rainfall on Thursday and 20% for Friday.

Much of this weeks forecast depends greatly on how these lows
move across and how far south they make it. As is typical, models
are struggling with these shoulder season systems, even in the
shorter 3-4 day window. Close eyes will be kept on how the Mon/Tue
system develops, with the possibility of some snowfall for the
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
140030Z...Coast/Valleys...This evening, expect layers of clouds: FEW-
BKN at 2-3 kft MSL, SCT-OVC at 3-6 kft MSL. SCT SHRA tonight with
a line of -RA/RA sweeping through the region from NW to SE from
06-13z Sat. Periods of MVFR vis and cigs during RA. Clouds scatter
out in the morning, becoming VFR and SKC by Sat afternoon.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT -SHRA through this evening in mountains with
cloud bases 3-6 kft MSL obscuring higher terrain. More steady -RA
and vis reductions expected with the passage of the precip band (06-
14z Sat). Gusty W/SW winds this evening and tonight with widespread
gusts to 25-35 knots (locally 40-45 kts over typically windy ridges,
desert slopes, and through passes). Winds will gradually taper off
through Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds gusting to 25 kts and seas 5 to 9 feet continue
through tonight into Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas diminish late
Saturday and Sunday, before increasing again Monday afternoon, with
gusts up to 30 kts and seas 8-12 feet through Wednesday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
A series of swells (15-17 seconds) from the west-northwest (280-290
degrees) will generate periods of elevated and high surf through
next week. The current northwest swell is causing surf 3 to 6 feet
with high sets, increasing overnight to a peak of 6 to 10 feet
Saturday and Sunday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for these two
days with dangerous conditions for both swimming and surfing. Surf
begins to wane Sunday afternoon but will remain elevated for west-
facing beaches into Monday morning. Another northwesterly swell will
arrive on Monday, extending the threat for high surf and strong rip
currents.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
     10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Zuber
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink