DesertWeather.com

285
FXUS66 KSGX 092140
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
140 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions and periods of weak to locally moderate northeast to
east winds will continue into Monday. Patchy dense fog is expected
near the coast tonight into Monday morning. Cooler conditions
expected for the middle to end of next week. A windy and wet pattern
is expected for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 1 PM visible satellite imagery was showing areas of low clouds
over the coastal waters and at area beaches. Some visibility
restrictions will linger at the immediate coast through the
afternoon. Although periods breezy northeast to easterly winds are
expected, patchy dense fog is expected to develop along the coast
and over portions of the coastal waters overnight and in the early
morning hours Monday.

High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen through Monday. The
high pressure combined with weak to moderate offshore flow at the
surface will result in above average temperatures across the area.
Highs Monday will be as much as 12 to 17 degrees above seasonal
averages. Areas of minor to moderate HeatRisk are expected, with the
highest HeatRisk expected in the western valleys. Northeast to east
winds are expected to have a peak Monday morning before slowly
diminishing into Monday evening. Winds will be most widespread on
the coastal slopes of the mountains and through passes and canyons.
Peak gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected in the favored locations.

Cooler conditions are expected by Tuesday, although highs will
remain above average, as the area of high pressure weakens ahead of
an incoming low pressure system. As onshore flow continues to
increase for mid-week the marine layer will begin to deepen,
diminishing chances for coastal dense fog. Cooler conditions will
also spread inland due to the increase in onshore flow. By
Wednesday, high temperatures are expected to return to near normal
west of the mountains, but remain about 10 degrees above average in
the deserts. Further cooling is expected for the end of the week
with widespread below average temperatures although there remains
about 10 degrees of spread between high temperature guidance for
inland areas from Thursday onwards.

There remains some spread in model solutions from Thursday onward,
but better agreement between the majority of solutions is starting
to emerge, especially when it comes to timing. Precipitation is
looking likely to start later in the day Thursday, with the highest
chances of precipitation late Thursday into Friday, chances look to
diminish late Saturday. The NBM shows a 45 to 65 percent chance for
a 3-day total of one inch or more of precipitation from the
mountains to the coast, with the mountain slopes most likely to
reach that threshold. NBM chances for the deserts exceeding 0.25
inch of rain over 3-days is about 30 percent for the low desert and
60 percent for the High Desert. An increase in winds can also be
expected over the mountains and into the deserts. Gusts to at least
40 to 50 mph are looking likely over the mountains and into the
deserts, with timing of the strongest winds still uncertain.
Finally, it does look like this system will be cold enough to
produce some mountain snow. There remains considerable uncertainty
in the snow levels, but right now it looks like the snow level
during the highest chance of precipitation is around 6500 feet, with
some ensemble solutions showing snow levels as low as 5500 feet. By
next Sunday, most ensemble solutions have the low pressure system to
our east, but about 40 percent of solutions still have the low in a
position that would result in wetter conditions for Southern
California.

&&

.AVIATION...
092130Z...Coasts...Low clouds/FG based 200-500 ft MSL currently over
San Diego County beaches and nearshore waters. Clouds will reinvade
coastal areas 01-03Z Mon creating vis reductions (0-2SM). Expecting
patchy coverage with FG staying mostly confined to within 5 miles of
the coastline. FG retreats to the coast early with models indicating
clearing for most of the coastline by 12-15Z Mon. Widespread VFR
conditions Monday afternoon with low clouds mostly clearing from
nearshore waters.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies and VFR conditions through
the period. Localized east to northeast winds through passes and
coastal slopes through Monday. Intermittent gusts 25-35 mph in these
areas. Winds peaking in the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of fog redevelop over coastal waters this evening,
intermittently reducing visibility to less than 1 nautical mile. Fog
will clear out by late Monday morning. Otherwise, gusty southwest
winds pick up late this week ahead of a weather system. Low
confidence on timing and peak intensity at this time, though
sustained winds 20 to 30 kts and periods of rain are likely.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...KW